Results of UCF, Georgia Researchers’ 2006 Hurricane Probability Analysis

By UCF Staff May 24, 2006

Photo: Courtesy of Mark Johnson and Chuck Watson

Key West and Pensacola are the Florida cities with the highest probabilities of experiencing hurricane-force winds this year, according to an analysis by UCF professor Mark Johnson and Chuck Watson, his Georgia colleague.

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Mark Johnson, a statistics professor at the University of Central Florida, and Chuck Watson, founder of Kinetic Analysis Corp., of Savannah, Ga., released the following results of their 2006 hurricane landfall probability analysis.

Each number represents the probability of a particular city being struck by hurricane-force winds at any time during the upcoming hurricane season. Their forecast modeling and statistical analysis simulates all hurricanes since 1851 and takes into account climate conditions for 2006.

The analysis covered cities along the entire Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Data for 28 of those cities, including 16 in Florida, are provided below. The first figure for each city is the probability of hurricane-force winds striking there in 2006; the second figure is the average probability of experiencing hurricane-force winds during hurricane seasons dating back 155 years.

Media may contact Chuck Watson at 912-398-9753 or ccwatson@methaz.net to request data for other cities.

Cities prone to experience hurricane-force winds (74 mph and above) in 2006:

1. New Orleans, La.
29.30% in 2006, 12.74% average

2. Mobile, Ala.
22.23% in 2006, 11.30% average

3. Key West, Fla.
20.61% in 2006, 14.79% average

4. Pensacola, Fla.
20.29% in 2006, 10.97% average

5. West Palm Beach, Fla.
18.94% in 2006, 15.87% average

Probabilities of Florida cities experiencing hurricane-force winds:

1. Key West
20.61% in 2006, 14.79% average

2. Pensacola
20.29% in 2006, 10.97% average

3. West Palm Beach
18.94% in 2006, 15.87% average

4. Miami
17.40% in 2006, 15.77% average

5. Panama City
16.92% in 2006, 9.89% average

6. St. Augustine
16.13% in 2006, 7.81% average

7. St. Petersburg
14.46% in 2006, 11.72% average

8. Jacksonville
13.70% in 2006, 6.88% average

9. Cedar Key
13.56% in 2006, 8.31% average

10. Daytona Beach
13.43% in 2006, 7.93% average

11. Fort Myers
12.34% in 2006, 15.98% average

12. Vero Beach
11.48% in 2006, 12.31% average

13. Apalachicola
11.22% in 2006, 9.34% average

14. Melbourne
8.10% in 2006, 10.18% average

15. Titusville
8.08% in 2006, 8.55% average

16. Orlando
6.68% in 2006, 8.53% average

Probabilities for other U.S. cities:

1. New Orleans, La.
29.30% in 2006, 12.74% average

2. Mobile, Ala.
22.23% in 2006, 11.30% average

3. Myrtle Beach, S.C.
18.42% in 2006, 12.12% average

4. Brownsville, Tex.
15.52% in 2006, 18.06% average

5. Cape Hatteras, N.C.
13.84% in 2006, 20.12% average

6. Savannah, Ga.
13.58% in 2006, 10.32% average

7. Galveston, Tex.
13.55% in 2006, 11.40% average

8. Corpus Christi, Tex.
7.93% in 2006, 7.97% average

9. New York City
7.38% in 2006, 4.36% average

10. Atlantic City
6.12% in 2006, 4.61% average

11. Ocean City, Md.
5.67% in 2006, 5.69% average

12. Cape Cod, Mass.
2.26% in 2006, 7.22% average

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